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LUSAKA — Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema is seeking a second term in an election that presents a critical test of whether his administration’s market-friendly economic reforms can deliver tangible relief to ordinary citizens amid record high copper prices.
Since sweeping into power in 2021 after a sovereign debt default, Hichilema has secured approval from international investors by restructuring the country’s debt and drawing roughly $10 billion in foreign investment into Africa’s second-largest copper producer. His administration has outlined ambitious plans to double copper output to 3 million metric tons annually by 2031 while restoring access to international capital markets.
Despite key macroeconomic improvements including projected gross domestic product growth of 4.3% this year and an annual inflation rate that has halved to 6.5% discontent remains high. Over 70% of Zambia’s 22 million residents live on less than $3 a day, driving growing impatience among young voters who feel excluded from the country’s mineral wealth.
Tensions erupted during a campaign visit to Chingola in the Copperbelt region, where local small-scale miners protested at a political event. In response, Hichilema directed that two copper slag deposits be made available to local youth for legal small-scale extraction, complete with equipment and safety training.
“We will double the size of the Zambian economy, permanently end load-shedding, and create millions of new jobs,” Hichilema stated in a campaign address, emphasizing long-term fiscal stability over short-term relief spending.
The president’s main challenger, lawyer and former lawmaker Brian Mundubile, has mounted a strong campaign focused on the rising cost of living and criticizing the government’s governance track record. Mundubile’s platform centers on ensuring local communities capture a greater share of mining returns.
“I have to warn that democracy is going to the grave today in Zambia right before the eyes of the world,” Mundubile said earlier this year, referencing the detention and tear-gassing of opposition supporters during the campaign.
While international mining companies prioritize stability and legal continuity, critics argue that aggressive foreign investment incentives have disproportionately benefited multinational corporations.
“These multinationals have gotten benefits through policies designed to benefit them,” said Emmanuel Mwamba, a former diplomat and senior official in the previous ruling administration.
With 14 presidential candidates and hundreds of independent contenders contesting expanded parliamentary seats, analysts anticipate a tighter legislature. Analysts suggest the political pressure may force Hichilema to re-evaluate terms for foreign direct investment if re-elected.
“He will also have to adjust his way of looking at foreign direct investment and especially the mining sector,” said Trevor Simumba, a Lusaka-based economist. “We can’t have all this resource and wealth and we are not seeing the benefits it doesn’t make sense.”
