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Zambia’s copper will have to come from both new discoveries and the mines already anchoring the country’s production base. At Lumwana, a US$2 billion expansion is advancing towards a major production increase that will double the mine’s annual copper output, extend its operating horizon and strengthen its position in a market where reliable supply and long-term production capacity carry growing strategic value.
Barrick Mining reports that construction of the new copper mill remains on schedule for completion in the fourth quarter of 2026. The project is expected to increase annual production from approximately 117,000 tonnes to 240,000 tonnes, with first copper from the expanded operation anticipated towards the end of the first quarter of 2028. On 9 November 2026, Barrick reported that capital expenditure on the project had reached US$795 million, with total expected investment remaining on target at US$2 billion.
Construction progress includes the delivery of all major long-lead equipment, with the mill shells, trunnions, primary crusher and tailings thickener already on site. The third level of the primary crusher is nearing completion, while the final mill wall lifts are expected to be completed in the fourth quarter. Work on the tailings storage facility is also scheduled to commence during the same period. At the expanded production rate, Lumwana is expected to have a 30 year life-of-mine, giving the investment a substantial long-term operating horizon. The expansion is expected to strengthen the mine’s production profile while reinforcing Zambia’s position as a significant copper-producing jurisdiction.
The project’s progress comes as Barrick reported third-quarter revenue of US$5.07 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, supported by production of 816,000 ounces of gold and 50,000 tonnes of copper. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased 13% to US$3.22 billion, while attributable adjusted EBITDA rose 22% to US$2.47 billion. Operating cash flow reached US$2.49 billion, with attributable free cash flow of US$640 million. Net earnings were US$1.32 billion, compared with US$1.30 billion in the corresponding period of 2025, while adjusted net earnings increased to US$1.35 billion from US$980 million.
Barrick President and Chief Executive Officer Mark Hill said the company remained confident in its production outlook. “We remain on track to achieve our full-year production guidance,” stated Hill. The miner continues to forecast 2026 gold production of 2.90 million to 3.25 million ounces and copper production of 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes. However, rising operating costs remain a consideration across its portfolio. Gold cost of sales increased to US$1,950 per ounce in the third quarter, from US$1,562 per ounce a year earlier. Total cash costs rose to US$1,386 per ounce, while all-in sustaining costs increased to US$1,911 per ounce. Lower processed grades, higher royalties associated with stronger realised gold prices, elevated diesel prices and increased sustaining capital expenditure contributed to the increases.
Copper cost of sales rose to US$3.65 per pound, with C1 cash costs reaching US$2.76 per pound and all-in sustaining costs climbing to US$4.52 per pound. Higher diesel prices and local currency appreciation, particularly in labour costs, contributed to the pressure. Barrick’s guidance is based on an oil price assumption of US$70 per barrel. The company estimates that every US$10 per barrel change in oil prices affects diesel-related costs by approximately US$12 per ounce across its gold operations and $0.04 per pound across its copper operations.
The company also reduced its total attributable capital expenditure forecast from the previously indicated US$3.8 – 4.2 billion range, reflecting lower anticipated spending at Reko Diq, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold projects. Barrick holds a 50% interest in the project, while three federal state-owned enterprises hold 25% and the Government of Balochistan holds the remaining 25%, comprising a 15% fully funded interest and a 10% free-carried interest. Lumwana expansion represents a substantial commitment to future copper production at a time when the country’s ambitions for higher output and greater participation in global copper supply chains are attracting attention. The transition from construction to commissioning and expanded production will be critical to realising the project’s projected capacity and long-term value.
