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Zambia’s push to scale up copper production is facing fresh pressure as planned shutdowns at key smelters threaten to ripple across both output and critical chemical supplies. Two of the country’s largest smelters of operations linked to Mopani Copper Mines and Chambishi, are preparing for extended maintenance outages later this year. While routine shutdowns are expected in the industry, the length and timing of these closures are raising concern in a market already under strain.
The impact goes beyond copper as these smelters are also central to the production of sulphuric acid, a vital input in processing both copper and cobalt. Zambia produces roughly two million metric tonnes of the chemical annually, most of which is consumed domestically, with surplus typically exported to the Democratic Republic of Congo. This year, however, there is effectively no surplus to export. Stocks have been depleted, and supply pressures are intensifying just as demand from regional mining operations remains high. In neighbouring Congo, the world’s leading cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer, mines are already adjusting. Some are cutting back on acid usage, while others are weighing potential output reductions as access to key processing inputs tightens.
The situation has been compounded by global disruptions linked to the Iran war, which has affected the supply of sulphuric acid and other leaching chemicals. The result is a more fragile supply chain, where local constraints in southern Africa are intersecting with broader geopolitical shocks. Within Zambia, the maintenance schedule itself is adding to the strain. Mopani is expected to undergo a short shutdown in June, followed by a much longer outage of up to 45 days between August and mid-September. Chambishi, majority owned by China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group, is reportedly planning a shutdown of around two months over a similar period.
Such extended downtime is unusual and comes at a critical moment. Zambia is aiming to significantly increase copper output in the coming years, positioning itself as a key supplier of a metal essential to clean energy technologies, electrification and global decarbonisation efforts. The current production trends highlight the challenge as the country produced just under 900,000 tonnes of copper last year, falling short of its one million tonne target. At the same time, global copper supply is tightening after years of underinvestment have constrained the pace of new mine development.
Operations at Mopani reflect these broader pressures. The mine is currently running well below its installed capacity of 225,000 metric tonnes of finished copper, largely due to limited access to copper concentrate. Its majority owner, International Resources Holding, is simultaneously developing and mining the asset, a process that has led to intermittent stoppages and further constrained output. Policy responses are also beginning to take shape. Zambia has recently tightened controls on sulphuric acid exports, requiring permits for any outbound shipments. The move is intended to prioritise domestic supply and protect local industry but it also signals how constrained the market has become.
Even with these measures in place, industry participants suggest that exports are unlikely to resume in the near term. The focus, instead, is shifting toward stabilising internal supply chains and ensuring that mining operations can continue without deeper disruptions. What is emerging is a more complex picture of Zambia’s copper sector. While long-term ambition remains high, near-term realities are being shaped by infrastructure constraints, maintenance backlogs and external shocks. The knock-on effects are regional, particularly for the Democratic Republic of Congo, where processing capacity is closely tied to inputs from across the border.
In this environment, the challenge is no longer just about increasing production. It is about maintaining continuity across an interconnected system where smelters, chemicals and mines are tightly linked. As shutdowns approach, Zambia’s copper industry is entering a delicate phase, one where operational decisions at a handful of facilities could influence supply dynamics across much of central and southern Africa.
