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LUSAKA – Zambia has launched a high-stakes diplomatic and economic offensive to more than triple its copper production to three million tonnes by 2031, positioning itself as a cornerstone of the global green energy transition. The ambitious target, revealed by Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe, comes as the world’s leading economies scramble to secure supplies of critical minerals essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. Despite producing 890,346 tonnes in 2025 falling short of its one-million-tonne annual milestone the government is doubling down on expansion, citing a renewed investment appetite from both Western and Eastern powers.
Central to this growth strategy is a deepening partnership with the United States, which is increasingly viewing Zambia as a strategic counterweight to China’s long-standing dominance in the African mining sector. Washington’s interest is underscored by the presence of KoBold Metals a California-based exploration firm backed by high-profile investors like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos which is currently developing the Mingomba project, touted as one of the world’s highest-grade undeveloped copper deposits. The geopolitical undercurrents are clear: Zambia is now a primary theater for the “critical minerals race,” with the U.S. seeking to secure the supply chains required for advanced manufacturing.
“The U.S. is part of it,” said Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe, referring to ongoing investment discussions. Addressing the complexity of these international relations, Kabuswe dismissed recent speculation that a proposed US$1 billion health aid package from Washington was being used as leverage to gain preferential mining access. He emphasized that the sovereign interests of Zambia remain the priority in all bilateral negotiations, stating, “There is nothing linked to anything. Zambia is very mindful when seated on the table to do negotiations over any matter. It has to be a win-win situation for Zambia and for the investors.”
The industrial landscape in Zambia is already reflecting this capital influx. Major players including Canada’s Barrick Gold and First Quantum Minerals, India’s Vedanta Resources, and China’s JCHX Mining are ramping up operations. Vedanta recently announced a US$1.5 billion injection to revitalize Konkola Copper Mines, while Barrick is advancing a US$2 billion expansion at its Lumwana site. This surge in activity is expected to drive Zambia’s GDP growth to a projected 6.1% in 2026, supported by a recovery in hydroelectric power levels at the Kariba Dam and a stabilizing inflationary environment.
However, the path to three million tonnes remains fraught with structural hurdles. Beyond copper, Zambia is sitting on vast untapped reserves of cobalt, nickel, manganese, and lithium minerals that are equally vital to the battery value chain. To transition from a raw material exporter to a value-addition hub, the government is exploring regional battery manufacturing partnerships with the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. The success of this industrial pivot will depend on Lusaka’s ability to maintain a stable regulatory climate while ensuring that the “red metal” boom translates into tangible social and economic gains for its citizens.
